EV advocates long for the day in which people will be able to decide which car to buy not based on price, but on what each vehicle has to offer. Many predictions have been made to date, but the most optimistic just came from Wood Mackenzie. According to the consulting company, battery prices will get below $100/kWh in 2024.
That is one year earlier than the most hopeful prediction before it. The reasons for that would be the “economies of scale and technological improvements.” Mass scale seems to be the most crucial factor.
Apart from Tesla, which has produced its millionth car in March 2020, Volkswagen will start to deliver the ID.3 to customers in September. It will be cheaper than a Golf with a similar level of equipment, which speaks a bunch about how many EVs the German company intends to sell.
The success of these companies with EVs will force the competition to go big in electrification or go bust, which will increase scale even more. If technical advancements help that happen even faster, we may achieve price parity even earlier than Wood Mackenzie predicts.
The interesting part is that this fundamental step toward EV adoption will happen despite the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the global economy, according to the consulting company. That’s probably because China and Europe ceased this glimpse of a world without oil to push EV demand even further.
The way things are going, no car company will be able to say it did not imagine electric cars would become prevalent so soon. It is already happening, and anyone waiting for a different scenario will be left behind. Right, Toyota?